Maccabi Netanya
vs
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
The model makes it 42% Maccabi Netanya, 27% draw, 31% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.89, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.43.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Maccabi Netanya are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; Ironi Kiryat Shmona are 12th on 3 points from 5 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Netanya are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Netanya 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 April 2026, ended Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi Netanya.
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Netanya at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya
- L1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Ramat Gan14 September 2026
- D1-1Hapoel Haifa7 September 2026
- W4-1away to Beitar Jerusalem29 August 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin24 August 2026
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva22 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Netanya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 29 April 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 7 February 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 2 November 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 16 August 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 5 January 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 21 September 2024Maccabi Netanya 2–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya
- Matheus Davó4 goals
- O. Bilu1 goal3 assists
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maccabi Netanya carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.27 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.43 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Netanya rate 0.64 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.58 and 1.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Netanya the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Maccabi Netanya against 1.43 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Maccabi Netanya's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.84 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Netanya at home · Ironi Kiryat Shmona away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Netanya 5, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 5.
Maccabi Netanya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ironi Kiryat Shmona have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Netanya
- at Ironi Tiberias24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- at Maccabi Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 25%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 28%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- vs Bnei Sakhnin24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 44%
- at Beitar Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
- vs Hapoel Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.