Aarhus Fremad
vs
Esbjerg
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aarhus Fremad 1–0 Esbjerg
The model makes it 51% Aarhus Fremad, 26% draw, 23% Esbjerg — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.80, Esbjerg 1.01.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Aarhus Fremad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aarhus Fremad are 6th on 13 points from 10 games; Esbjerg are bottom on 6 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Aarhus Fremad are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to AB Copenhagen.
- Esbjerg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Aalborg.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended Esbjerg 2–0 Aarhus Fremad.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus Fremad at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg
Aarhus Fremad
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 September 2026
- W2-1Kolding IF6 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle30 August 2026
Esbjerg
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen19 September 2026
- D2-2HB Koge12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Fredericia5 September 2026
- L0-2Vendsyssel FF30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aarhus Fremad
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
Esbjerg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 73% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg
- 4 July 2026Esbjerg 2–0 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
- 25 October 2025Aarhus Fremad 0–1 Esbjerg1. Division
- 28 September 2025Esbjerg 1–1 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 18 May 2024Aarhus Fremad 2–0 Esbjerg2. Division
- 26 April 2024Esbjerg 0–1 Aarhus Fremad2. Division
- 24 March 2024Esbjerg 2–2 Aarhus Fremad2. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aarhus Fremad carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.12 for Esbjerg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.01 for Esbjerg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus Fremad rate 0.48 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esbjerg rate 0.53 and 2.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aarhus Fremad a 0.8% chance of the title and Esbjerg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus Fremad the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad against 1.01 for Esbjerg. Aarhus Fremad's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.3 for Esbjerg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus Fremad at home · Esbjerg away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aarhus Fremad 10, Esbjerg 10.
Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus Fremad
- at Vejle24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs Hillerød1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at Hvidovre9 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Hobro20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Esbjerg
- vs FC Fredericia24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland28 Oct · DBU Pokalenwin 17%
- vs Hvidovre31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Hobro7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs AB Copenhagen21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.