HB Koge
vs
AB Copenhagen
1. Division prediction
Our model says: HB Koge 1–0 AB Copenhagen
The model makes it 36% HB Koge, 30% draw, 34% AB Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HB Koge 1.24, AB Copenhagen 1.17.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: HB Koge and AB Copenhagen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HB Koge are 8th on 10 points from 10 games; AB Copenhagen are 7th on 12 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- HB Koge are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Vendsyssel FF.
- AB Copenhagen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Aarhus Fremad.
- Last 6 meetings: HB Koge 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended HB Koge 3–3 AB Copenhagen.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HB Koge at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen
HB Koge
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
- W5-2Hobro21 September 2026
- D2-2away to Esbjerg12 September 2026
- D1-1Hillerød4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aalborg29 August 2026
AB Copenhagen
- W2-0Aarhus Fremad9 October 2026
- W3-0Esbjerg19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hillerød12 September 2026
- L0-2Aalborg5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Kolding IF29 August 2026
What these results say
- HB Koge went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HB Koge scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | HB Koge | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | AB Copenhagen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HB Koge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
AB Copenhagen
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen
- 24 January 2026HB Koge 3–3 AB CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
- 17 January 2025HB Koge 0–0 AB CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2023HB Koge 5–0 AB CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
- 5 April 2017HB Koge 0–0 AB Copenhagen1. Division
- 23 October 2016AB Copenhagen 2–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 18 September 2016HB Koge 1–0 AB Copenhagen1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HB Koge carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.3 for AB Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for HB Koge and 1.17 for AB Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HB Koge rate 0.50 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AB Copenhagen rate 0.50 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AB Copenhagen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HB Koge a 0.1% chance of the title and AB Copenhagen 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HB Koge the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for HB Koge against 1.17 for AB Copenhagen. HB Koge's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.52 for AB Copenhagen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HB Koge at home · AB Copenhagen away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: HB Koge 10, AB Copenhagen 10.
HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); AB Copenhagen have let in 1 there.
AB Copenhagen score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); HB Koge have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
HB Koge
- at Hvidovre23 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- at Kolding IF31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- vs Aalborg6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- at Vejle21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Aarhus Fremad28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
AB Copenhagen
- vs Kolding IF24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- vs Brondby27 Oct · DBU Pokalenwin 28%
- at FC Fredericia31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- vs Vendsyssel FF6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 54%
- at Esbjerg21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.