FC Augsburg
vs
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Augsburg 1–2 SC Freiburg
The model makes it 35% FC Augsburg, 24% draw, 41% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.78, SC Freiburg 1.99.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to SC Freiburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- FC Augsburg are 10th on 8 points from 6 games; SC Freiburg are 2nd on 13 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Augsburg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to SV Elversberg.
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Schalke 04.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended FC Augsburg 2–2 SC Freiburg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 41% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Augsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Augsburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
SC Freiburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 52% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at FC Augsburg on 18 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
| SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Jan 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–2 SC Freiburg - 23 Aug 2025
BundesligaSC Freiburg 1–3 FC Augsburg - 2 Mar 2025
BundesligaFC Augsburg 0–0 SC Freiburg - 19 Oct 2024
BundesligaSC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg - 25 Feb 2024
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–1 SC Freiburg - 1 Oct 2023
BundesligaSC Freiburg 2–0 FC Augsburg
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.11 | 1.06 |
| SC Freiburg | 1.21 | 0.87 |
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch30
- R. Fellhauer30
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Augsburg carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.02 for SC Freiburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.99 for SC Freiburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Augsburg rate 1.11 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Freiburg rate 1.21 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Augsburg a 0.1% chance of the title and SC Freiburg 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 1.99 for SC Freiburg. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.87 for SC Freiburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Augsburg at home · SC Freiburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Augsburg 6, SC Freiburg 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Augsburg
- at RB Leipzig7 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs FSV Mainz 0522 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim29 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs 1. FC Köln5 Dec · Bundesligawin 54%
SC Freiburg
- at Trabzonspor5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
- vs Union Berlin8 Nov · Bundesligawin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.