SC Freiburg
vs
Union Berlin
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin
The model makes it 63% SC Freiburg, 21% draw, 16% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.46, Union Berlin 1.00.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
One-sided: SC Freiburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. SC Freiburg's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and Union Berlin's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 677 matches.
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; Union Berlin are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Union Berlin are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Augsburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Union Berlin 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended SC Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 63% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
Union Berlin
Bundesliga
- D1-1away to FC Augsburg24 October 2026
- D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Freiburg had three goals or more.
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin have met 6 times in the records we hold, Union Berlin has won 3 of them to SC Freiburg's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Union Berlin won the last one 1–0 on 15 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Union Berlin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 7 goals, an average of 1.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Mar 2026
BundesligaSC Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin - 1 Nov 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg - 30 Mar 2025
BundesligaSC Freiburg 1–2 Union Berlin - 8 Nov 2024
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg - 18 May 2024
BundesligaUnion Berlin 2–1 SC Freiburg - 13 Jan 2024
BundesligaSC Freiburg 0–0 Union Berlin
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 1.22 | 0.86 |
| Union Berlin | 0.75 | 1.10 |
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.66 for Union Berlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.00 for Union Berlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 1.22 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Berlin rate 0.75 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SC Freiburg a 2.2% chance of the title and Union Berlin 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 1.00 for Union Berlin. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.1 for Union Berlin.
How the model reaches 63% for SC Freiburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for SC Freiburg to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, SC Freiburg's ratings add 11 points and Union Berlin's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage42%+4
- SC Freiburg's ratings53%+11
- Union Berlin's ratings63%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · Union Berlin away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SC FreiburgUnion Berlin
SC Freiburg are 3rd after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Union Berlin are 17th after 7 (between 6th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Freiburg 6, Union Berlin 7.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- at SV Elversberg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
- vs Twente26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 51%
Union Berlin
- vs RB Leipzig21 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at FSV Mainz 0528 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs Hamburger SV5 Dec · Bundesligawin 41%
- at VfB Stuttgart12 Dec · Bundesligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.