Real Sociedad
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla
The model makes it 54% Real Sociedad, 23% draw, 23% Sevilla — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.28, Sevilla 1.31.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to Real Sociedad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Real Sociedad's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Sevilla's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad are 5th on 22 points from 12 games; Sevilla are 6th on 18 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Real Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rayo Vallecano.
- Sevilla have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Alaves.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Sevilla
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Sevilla
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W1-0Rayo Vallecano8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Athletic Club1 November 2026
- W2-1Levante25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
Sevilla
La Liga
- D0-0Alaves6 November 2026
- L1-3away to Getafe1 November 2026
- W2-0Osasuna26 October 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sevilla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sevilla scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Sevilla
Real Sociedad and Sevilla have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Sevilla won the last one 1–0 on 4 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Sevilla | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 May 2026
La LigaSevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad - 24 Oct 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla - 9 Mar 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 0–1 Sevilla - 3 Nov 2024
La LigaSevilla 0–2 Real Sociedad - 2 Mar 2024
La LigaSevilla 3–2 Real Sociedad - 26 Nov 2023
La LigaReal Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Real Sociedad's attack rates 39% above Sevilla's, and Sevilla concede 4% fewer than Real Sociedad. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.32 | 1.12 |
| Sevilla | 0.95 | 1.07 |
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Sevilla
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad a 0.1% chance of the title and Sevilla 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.31 for Sevilla. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.32/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.07 for Sevilla.
How the model reaches 54% for Real Sociedad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Real Sociedad's ratings add 5 points and Sevilla's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Real Sociedad's ratings51%+5
- Sevilla's ratings54%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Sociedad at home · Sevilla away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real SociedadSevilla
Real Sociedad are 5th after 12 La Liga matches (between 5th and 20th so far); Sevilla are 6th after 12 (between 1st and 7th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Sociedad 12, Sevilla 12.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sevilla have let in 3 there.
Sevilla score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad
- vs Real Madrid2 Dec · La Ligawin 22%
- at Villarreal6 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
- vs Torreense10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 74%
Sevilla
- vs Malaga6 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- at Elche13 Dec · La Ligawin 30%
- vs Racing Santander20 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- at Villarreal3 Jan · La Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.