Union Berlin
vs
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Union Berlin 1–2 RB Leipzig
The model makes it 18% Union Berlin, 21% draw, 61% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 5.56, 4.76 and 1.64.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.10, RB Leipzig 2.44.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: RB Leipzig are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Union Berlin's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and RB Leipzig's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Union Berlin are 16th on 7 points from 9 games; RB Leipzig are 4th on 18 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Union Berlin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to SC Freiburg.
- RB Leipzig are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to FC Augsburg.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Leipzig 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Has the model earned this number?
RB Leipzig at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
Bundesliga
- L0-2away to SC Freiburg8 November 2026
- D1-11. FC Köln1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Augsburg24 October 2026
- D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- W5-2FC Augsburg7 November 2026
- W2-0away to FC Schalke 0431 October 2026
- W4-0SV Elversberg24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Union Berlin had two goals or fewer.
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- RB Leipzig won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Union Berlin
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 38% today
RB Leipzig
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
RB Leipzig and Union Berlin have met 6 times in the records we hold, RB Leipzig has won 3 of them to Union Berlin's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
RB Leipzig won the last one 3–1 on 24 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| Union Berlin | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Apr 2026
BundesligaRB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin - 12 Dec 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig - 1 Feb 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–0 RB Leipzig - 14 Sep 2024
BundesligaRB Leipzig 0–0 Union Berlin - 4 Feb 2024
BundesligaRB Leipzig 2–0 Union Berlin - 3 Sep 2023
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–3 RB Leipzig
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, RB Leipzig's attack rates 110% above Union Berlin's, and RB Leipzig concede 21% fewer than Union Berlin. That gives RB Leipzig the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 1.47 | 0.85 |
| Union Berlin | 0.70 | 1.08 |
Leading scorers: Union Berlin and RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku52
- Rômulo50
- A. Nusa47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Berlin a 0% chance of the title and RB Leipzig 5.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Union Berlin against 2.44 for RB Leipzig. Union Berlin's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.47/0.85 for RB Leipzig.
How the model reaches 61% for RB Leipzig to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for RB Leipzig to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Union Berlin's ratings add 13 points and RB Leipzig's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Union Berlin's ratings45%+13
- RB Leipzig's ratings61%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Union Berlin at home · RB Leipzig away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Union BerlinRB Leipzig
Union Berlin are 16th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 6th and 16th so far); RB Leipzig are 4th after 9 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Union Berlin 9, RB Leipzig 9.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 1 there.
RB Leipzig score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Union Berlin have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Union Berlin
- at FSV Mainz 0528 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs Hamburger SV5 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- at VfB Stuttgart12 Dec · Bundesligawin 18%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim20 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Werder Bremen10 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
RB Leipzig
- vs Lens24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 67%
- at SC Freiburg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs FSV Mainz 055 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
- at Manchester United8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- at 1. FC Köln12 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.