Willem II
vs
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle
The model makes it 36% Willem II, 26% draw, 38% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Willem II 1.57, PEC Zwolle 1.63.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
A tight game: Willem II and PEC Zwolle are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Willem II's rating is built from 9 Eredivisie matches and PEC Zwolle's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Willem II are bottom on 2 points from 9 games; PEC Zwolle are 15th on 7 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sparta Rotterdam.
- PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Last 6 meetings: PEC Zwolle 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 May 2025, ended Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PEC Zwolle at 38% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
Willem II
Eredivisie
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
What these results say
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Willem II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Willem II
PEC Zwolle and Willem II have met 6 times in the records we hold, PEC Zwolle has won 3 of them to Willem II's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
PEC Zwolle won the last one 2–1 on 14 May 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Willem II | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 May 2025
EredivisieWillem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle - 13 Dec 2024
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem II - 10 Mar 2023
Eerste DivisieWillem II 2–3 PEC Zwolle - 9 Sep 2022
Eerste DivisiePEC Zwolle 2–2 Willem II - 14 Jan 2022
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 2–0 Willem II - 28 Aug 2021
EredivisieWillem II 1–0 PEC Zwolle
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 0.65 | 1.42 |
| Willem II | 0.60 | 1.69 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.46 for PEC Zwolle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Willem II and 1.63 for PEC Zwolle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.60 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PEC Zwolle rate 0.65 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PEC Zwolle the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Willem II against 1.63 for PEC Zwolle. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.42 for PEC Zwolle.
How the model reaches 38% for PEC Zwolle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for PEC Zwolle to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Willem II's ratings add 31 points and PEC Zwolle's ratings take away 24 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Willem II's ratings62%+31
- PEC Zwolle's ratings38%−24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Willem II at home · PEC Zwolle away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Willem IIPEC Zwolle
Willem II are 18th after 9 Eredivisie matches (between 15th and 18th so far); PEC Zwolle are 15th after 9 (between 13th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Willem II 9, PEC Zwolle 9.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 5 there.
PEC Zwolle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Willem II have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Willem II
- at Twente22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 9%
- at Groningen27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
- vs Feyenoord5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 10%
PEC Zwolle
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- vs AZ Alkmaar29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 21%
- at Fortuna Sittard5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.