Utrecht
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Utrecht 2–1 NEC Nijmegen
The model makes it 39% Utrecht, 26% draw, 35% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Utrecht 1.67, NEC Nijmegen 1.56.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,013 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Utrecht's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and NEC Nijmegen's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Utrecht are 11th on 12 points from 10 games; NEC Nijmegen are 13th on 10 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- Utrecht are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to PEC Zwolle.
- NEC Nijmegen have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- Last 6 meetings: Utrecht 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2026, ended NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Utrecht at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht
Eredivisie
- D1-1PEC Zwolle24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
- W3-1Willem II11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
What these results say
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht have met 6 times in the records we hold, Utrecht has won 4 of them to NEC Nijmegen's 2.
The record
Utrecht won the last one 3–1 on 11 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Feb 2026
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht - 2 Nov 2025
EredivisieUtrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen - 15 Mar 2025
EredivisieUtrecht 0–1 NEC Nijmegen - 24 Nov 2024
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 1–2 Utrecht - 17 Mar 2024
EredivisieUtrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen - 23 Sep 2023
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 3–0 Utrecht
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.86 | 1.10 |
| Utrecht | 0.82 | 1.22 |
Leading scorers: Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- Artem Stepanov50
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.73 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Utrecht and 1.56 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Utrecht rate 0.82 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 0.86 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Utrecht against 1.56 for NEC Nijmegen. Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.1 for NEC Nijmegen.
How the model reaches 39% for Utrecht to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Utrecht to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Utrecht's ratings take away 12 points and NEC Nijmegen's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Utrecht's ratings32%−12
- NEC Nijmegen's ratings39%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Utrecht at home · NEC Nijmegen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen
Utrecht are 11th after 10 Eredivisie matches (between 10th and 16th so far); NEC Nijmegen are 13th after 9 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Utrecht 10, NEC Nijmegen 9.
Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Utrecht
- vs Cambuur21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at ADO Den Haag29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
- at Ajax6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 15%
- vs Fortuna Sittard12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 45%
NEC Nijmegen
- vs PSV Eindhoven21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Rennes26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.