Napoli
vs
Torino
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Napoli 1–0 Torino
The model makes it 55% Napoli, 25% draw, 20% Torino — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Napoli 1.88, Torino 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Napoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Napoli's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Torino's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Napoli are 10th on 15 points from 11 games; Torino are 11th on 14 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Napoli have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lazio.
- Torino are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lecce.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Napoli 2–1 Torino.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Napoli vs Torino
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Napoli vs Torino
Napoli
Serie A
- D1-1Lazio8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus1 November 2026
- W4-1away to Monza28 October 2026
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
Torino
Serie A
- D1-1Lecce7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Frosinone1 November 2026
- L1-3Como27 October 2026
- W3-2Monza23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026
What these results say
- Napoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Napoli
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
Torino
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Torino
Napoli and Torino have met 6 times in the records we hold, Napoli has won 3 of them to Torino's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Napoli won the last one 2–1 on 6 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Torino | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 6 Mar 2026
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Torino - 18 Oct 2025
Serie ATorino 1–0 Napoli - 27 Apr 2025
Serie ANapoli 2–0 Torino - 1 Dec 2024
Serie ATorino 0–1 Napoli - 8 Mar 2024
Serie ANapoli 1–1 Torino - 7 Jan 2024
Serie ATorino 3–0 Napoli
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Napoli's attack rates 33% above Torino's, and Napoli concede 30% fewer than Torino. That gives Napoli the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Napoli and Torino
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Napoli a 0.2% chance of the title and Torino 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Napoli against 0.90 for Torino. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.06 for Torino.
How the model reaches 55% for Napoli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Napoli to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Napoli's ratings add 8 points and Torino's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Napoli's ratings46%+8
- Torino's ratings55%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Napoli at home · Torino away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NapoliTorino
Napoli are 10th after 11 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Torino are 11th after 11 (between 7th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Napoli 11, Torino 11.
Torino score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Napoli have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Napoli
- at Manchester City24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 16%
- at Sassuolo29 Nov · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Lecce6 Dec · Serie Awin 61%
- vs Club Brugge KV8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs AC Milan13 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
Torino
- vs Lazio29 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- at Genoa6 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
- at Inter13 Dec · Serie Awin 13%
- vs Cagliari20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- vs Venezia3 Jan · Serie Awin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.