Napoli
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Napoli 1–0 Lazio
The model makes it 42% Napoli, 29% draw, 29% Lazio — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Napoli 1.36, Lazio 1.03.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Napoli's rating is built from 46 Serie A matches and Lazio's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Napoli are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; Lazio are top on 22 points from 8 games — Serie A.
- Napoli have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to AS Roma.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Parma.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Napoli 0–2 Lazio.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Napoli vs Lazio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Napoli vs Lazio
Napoli
Serie A
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
- W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
Lazio
Serie A
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
What these results say
- Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 1 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Napoli
Lazio and Napoli have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 3 of them to Napoli's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Lazio won the last one 2–0 on 18 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| Napoli | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Apr 2026
Serie ANapoli 0–2 Lazio - 4 Jan 2026
Serie ALazio 0–2 Napoli - 15 Feb 2025
Serie ALazio 2–2 Napoli - 8 Dec 2024
Serie ANapoli 0–1 Lazio - 5 Dec 2024
Coppa ItaliaLazio 3–1 Napoli - 28 Jan 2024
Serie ALazio 0–0 Napoli
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Napoli and Lazio
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- D. Frattesi30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Napoli carry a model rating of 7.12 against 7.03 for Lazio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Napoli and 1.03 for Lazio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Napoli rate 1.28 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lazio rate 1.09 and 0.76.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lazio, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Napoli a 1.4% chance of the title and Lazio 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Napoli against 1.03 for Lazio. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.28/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.76 for Lazio.
How the model reaches 42% for Napoli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Napoli to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Napoli's ratings add 14 points and Lazio's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Napoli's ratings53%+14
- Lazio's ratings42%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Napoli at home · Lazio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NapoliLazio
Napoli are 9th after 8 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Lazio are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Napoli 8, Lazio 8.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Napoli have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Napoli
- vs Torino21 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
- at Manchester City24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
Lazio
- vs Lecce21 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- at Torino29 Nov · Serie Awin 42%
- vs Atalanta6 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.