River Plate
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: River Plate 1–0 Lanus
The model makes it 42% River Plate, 33% draw, 25% Lanus — fair odds of 2.38, 3.03 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: River Plate 1.13, Lanus 0.76.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. River Plate's rating is built from 71 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Lanus's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,383 matches.
Key facts
- River Plate are 4th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 26 points from 16 games; Lanus are 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 26 points from 16 games.
- River Plate have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Aldosivi.
- Lanus are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Central Cordoba de Santiago.
- Last 6 meetings: River Plate 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 August 2025, ended Lanus 1–1 River Plate.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: River Plate vs Lanus
Has the model earned this number?
River Plate at 42%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into River Plate vs Lanus
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-0away to Aldosivi5 November 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors1 November 2026
- W1-0Racing Club25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Belgrano Cordoba18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago8 November 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia Mendoza1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Banfield24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense17 October 2026
- W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026
What these results say
- River Plate scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for River Plate had two goals or fewer.
- Lanus went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lanus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lanus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lanus vs River Plate
Lanus and River Plate have met 6 times in the records we hold, River Plate has won 4 of them to Lanus's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Lanus on 26 Aug 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| River Plate | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Aug 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLanus 1–1 River Plate - 16 Feb 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 1–0 Lanus - 21 Jul 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–2 Lanus - 4 Mar 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLanus 0–2 River Plate - 25 Jun 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–1 Lanus - 29 Jul 2021
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLanus 0–3 River Plate
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, River Plate's attack rates 17% above Lanus', and Lanus concede 4% fewer than River Plate. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 0.80 | 0.97 |
| River Plate | 0.94 | 1.01 |
Leading scorers: River Plate and Lanus
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Lanus
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for River Plate against 0.76 for Lanus. River Plate's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.97 for Lanus.
How the model reaches 42% for River Plate to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for River Plate to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, River Plate's ratings add 2 points and Lanus's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage41%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−2
- River Plate's ratings41%+2
- Lanus's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
River Plate at home · Lanus away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: River Plate 36, Lanus 33.
Lanus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); River Plate have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.