Monza
vs
Cagliari
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Monza 0–1 Cagliari
The model makes it 32% Monza, 29% draw, 39% Cagliari — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Monza 1.22, Cagliari 1.44.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Monza are 16th on 4 points from 5 games; Cagliari are 4th on 12 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Monza have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Cagliari are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win away to Udinese.
- Last 4 meetings: Cagliari 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 March 2025, ended Cagliari 3–0 Monza.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Monza vs Cagliari
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cagliari at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monza vs Cagliari
Monza
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
Cagliari
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
What these results say
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
- Cagliari won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Cagliari
- 30 March 2025Cagliari 3–0 MonzaSerie A
- 5 January 2025Monza 1–2 CagliariSerie A
- 16 March 2024Monza 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 26 November 2023Cagliari 1–1 MonzaSerie A
Leading scorers: Monza and Cagliari
Monza
- Gustavo Varela4 goals
Cagliari
- D. Maldini3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Monza carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.88 for Cagliari. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Monza and 1.44 for Cagliari. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monza rate 1.06 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cagliari rate 0.86 and 0.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cagliari the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Monza against 1.44 for Cagliari. Monza's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.83 for Cagliari.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monza at home · Cagliari away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Monza 5, Cagliari 5.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Monza have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Monza
- at Torino23 Oct · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Napoli28 Oct · Serie Awin 24%
- at Bologna31 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Atalanta8 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
Cagliari
- vs Bologna24 Oct · Serie Awin 37%
- at AS Roma27 Oct · Serie Awin 19%
- at Lazio1 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Frosinone7 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.