Galatasaray
vs
Samsunspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 3–0 Samsunspor
The model makes it 78% Galatasaray, 13% draw, 9% Samsunspor — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Galatasaray 3.51, Samsunspor 0.94.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Galatasaray are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Galatasaray's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Samsunspor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Galatasaray are top on 28 points from 11 games; Samsunspor are 17th on 7 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Galatasaray are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-3 win at home to Amed.
- Samsunspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Konyaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Galatasaray 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Samsunspor 4–1 Galatasaray.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor
Has the model earned this number?
Galatasaray at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs Samsunspor
Galatasaray
Süper Lig
- W4-3Amed7 November 2026
- W4-0away to Konyaspor30 October 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe26 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.17 October 2026
- W3-1Kasımpaşa9 October 2026
Samsunspor
Süper Lig
- W1-0Konyaspor7 November 2026
- L2-5away to Başakşehir1 November 2026
- L1-2Amed24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Kasımpaşa18 October 2026
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray won every one of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
- Samsunspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 15 | +12 | 28 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Galatasaray
Chance to win the league · 58% today
Samsunspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor
Galatasaray and Samsunspor have met 6 times in the records we hold, Galatasaray has won 5 of them to Samsunspor's 1.
The record
Samsunspor won the last one 4–1 on 2 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 |
| Samsunspor | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 4.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 May 2026
Süper LigSamsunspor 4–1 Galatasaray - 5 Dec 2025
Süper LigGalatasaray 3–2 Samsunspor - 11 Apr 2025
Süper LigSamsunspor 0–2 Galatasaray - 10 Nov 2024
Süper LigGalatasaray 3–2 Samsunspor - 2 Feb 2024
Süper LigSamsunspor 0–2 Galatasaray - 16 Sep 2023
Süper LigGalatasaray 4–2 Samsunspor
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Galatasaray's attack rates 89% above Samsunspor's, and Galatasaray concede 36% fewer than Samsunspor. That gives Galatasaray the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.38 | 0.98 |
| Samsunspor | 0.73 | 1.53 |
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Samsunspor
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- V. Osimhen93
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Galatasaray a 58.4% chance of the title and Samsunspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.51 expected goals for Galatasaray against 0.94 for Samsunspor. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.53 for Samsunspor.
How the model reaches 78% for Galatasaray to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Galatasaray to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Galatasaray's ratings add 18 points and Samsunspor's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 78%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Galatasaray's ratings63%+18
- Samsunspor's ratings78%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Galatasaray at home · Samsunspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GalatasaraySamsunspor
Galatasaray are 1st after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Samsunspor are 17th after 11 (between 2nd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Galatasaray 11, Samsunspor 11.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Samsunspor have let in 3 there.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Galatasaray have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Galatasaray
- vs Aston Villa24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
- at Beşiktaş30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Rizespor4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 72%
- at AEK Athens FC8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- at Eyüpspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 76%
Samsunspor
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Beşiktaş6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 12%
- at Alanyaspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Gaziantep FK20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 46%
- at Eyüpspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.