Frosinone
vs
Torino
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Frosinone 2–1 Torino
The model makes it 49% Frosinone, 25% draw, 26% Torino — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.86, Torino 1.22.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Frosinone: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Frosinone are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Torino are 12th on 7 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Torino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Udinese.
- Last 6 meetings: Torino 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2024, ended Torino 0–0 Frosinone.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Frosinone vs Torino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Frosinone at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Frosinone vs Torino
Frosinone
- W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
Torino
- W2-1Udinese12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Torino.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Torino
Frosinone and Torino have met 6 times in the records we hold, Torino has won 3 of them to Frosinone's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Torino on 21 Apr 2024.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Torino | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Apr 2024
Serie ATorino 0–0 Frosinone - 10 Dec 2023
Serie AFrosinone 0–0 Torino - 2 Nov 2023
Coppa ItaliaTorino 1–2 Frosinone - 10 Mar 2019
Serie AFrosinone 1–2 Torino - 5 Oct 2018
Serie ATorino 3–2 Frosinone - 16 Jan 2016
Serie ATorino 4–2 Frosinone
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Torino
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo70
- G. Kvernadze31
Torino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Frosinone carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.79 for Torino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Frosinone and 1.22 for Torino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Frosinone rate 1.22 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torino rate 0.97 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Frosinone a 0.2% chance of the title and Torino 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Frosinone against 1.22 for Torino. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.22/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.09 for Torino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Frosinone at home · Torino away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FrosinoneTorino
Frosinone are 4th after 7 Serie A matches (between 4th and 17th so far); Torino are 12th after 6 (between 12th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Frosinone 7, Torino 6.
Frosinone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Torino have let in 0 there.
Torino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Frosinone have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Frosinone
- at Cagliari7 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at AC Milan22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Parma29 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
Torino
- vs Lecce7 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
- at Napoli21 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.