Heerenveen
vs
Feyenoord
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Heerenveen 1–2 Feyenoord
The model makes it 28% Heerenveen, 25% draw, 47% Feyenoord — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.33, Feyenoord 1.91.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Edge to Feyenoord: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Heerenveen's rating is built from 45 Eredivisie matches and Feyenoord's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Heerenveen are 7th on 15 points from 10 games; Feyenoord are top on 23 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- Heerenveen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to ADO Den Haag.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Telstar.
- Last 6 meetings: Feyenoord 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Heerenveen 2–2 Feyenoord.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag24 October 2026
- W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
- W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
- W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
- W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
What these results say
- Feyenoord won every one of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Feyenoord had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Heerenveen
Feyenoord and Heerenveen have met 6 times in the records we hold, Feyenoord has won 3 of them to Heerenveen's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Heerenveen on 11 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Jan 2026
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–2 Feyenoord - 17 Dec 2025
KNVB BekerFeyenoord 2–3 Heerenveen - 13 Sep 2025
EredivisieFeyenoord 1–0 Heerenveen - 18 May 2025
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–0 Feyenoord - 23 Nov 2024
EredivisieFeyenoord 3–0 Heerenveen - 17 Mar 2024
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–3 Feyenoord
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.28 | 0.85 |
| Heerenveen | 0.85 | 1.00 |
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Feyenoord
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow62
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- Nacho Ferri61
- G. Zechiël54
- A. Hadj-Moussa51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.77 against 7.06 for Feyenoord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Heerenveen and 1.91 for Feyenoord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.85 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Feyenoord rate 1.28 and 0.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heerenveen a 0.2% chance of the title and Feyenoord 43.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Heerenveen against 1.91 for Feyenoord. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.85 for Feyenoord.
How the model reaches 47% for Feyenoord to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Feyenoord to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Heerenveen's ratings add 4 points and Feyenoord's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Heerenveen's ratings35%+4
- Feyenoord's ratings47%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heerenveen at home · Feyenoord away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Heerenveen 10, Feyenoord 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Heerenveen
- at Groningen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 32%
- at Fortuna Sittard29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- vs Cambuur6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 52%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 50%
Feyenoord
- vs Excelsior21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 70%
- vs FC Porto24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.