Rizespor
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Rizespor 1–0 Erzurumspor FK
The model makes it 41% Rizespor, 29% draw, 30% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rizespor 1.37, Erzurumspor FK 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Rizespor's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Erzurumspor FK's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 724 matches.
Key facts
- Rizespor are 12th on 10 points from 8 games; Erzurumspor FK are 8th on 14 points from 9 games — Süper Lig.
- Rizespor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Çorum FK.
- Erzurumspor FK are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Gaziantep FK.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Erzurumspor FK 0–0 Rizespor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rizespor at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK
Rizespor
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
- L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
- L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- W3-1away to Gaziantep FK24 October 2026
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
What these results say
- Rizespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor
Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Erzurumspor FK on 17 Jul 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| Rizespor | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsErzurumspor FK 0–0 Rizespor - 15 Jan 2026
Türkiye KupasıErzurumspor FK 2–0 Rizespor - 9 Apr 2023
1. LigErzurumspor FK 1–1 Rizespor - 4 Nov 2022
1. LigRizespor 3–1 Erzurumspor FK - 22 Jul 2022
Friendlies ClubsErzurumspor FK 2–3 Rizespor - 13 Nov 2021
Friendlies ClubsRizespor 1–4 Erzurumspor FK
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.64 | 1.14 |
| Rizespor | 0.73 | 1.30 |
Leading scorers: Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK
Rizespor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Erzurumspor FK
GoalsAssists
- E. Tozlu31
- Miguel Cardoso30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rizespor carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.57 for Erzurumspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Rizespor and 1.09 for Erzurumspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rizespor rate 0.73 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Erzurumspor FK rate 0.64 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Erzurumspor FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rizespor the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rizespor against 1.09 for Erzurumspor FK. Rizespor's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.14 for Erzurumspor FK.
How the model reaches 41% for Rizespor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Rizespor to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Rizespor's ratings take away 15 points and Erzurumspor FK's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Rizespor's ratings28%−15
- Erzurumspor FK's ratings41%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rizespor at home · Erzurumspor FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RizesporErzurumspor FK
Rizespor are 12th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Erzurumspor FK are 8th after 9 (between 8th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Rizespor 8, Erzurumspor FK 9.
Rizespor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Erzurumspor FK have let in 1 there.
Erzurumspor FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Rizespor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rizespor
- at Amed21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 17%
- vs Kasımpaşa27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 36%
- at Galatasaray4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 13%
Erzurumspor FK
- vs Göztepe22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 37%
- at Fenerbahçe29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 11%
- vs Kocaelispor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Kasımpaşa12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.