SC Paderborn 07
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Paderborn 07 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
The model makes it 34% SC Paderborn 07, 27% draw, 39% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 1.40, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 956 settled matches.
Edge to Eintracht Frankfurt: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. SC Paderborn 07's rating is built from 8 Bundesliga matches and Eintracht Frankfurt's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- SC Paderborn 07 are 16th on 5 points from 6 games; Eintracht Frankfurt are 11th on 8 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Werder Bremen.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to 1. FC Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 June 2020, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 SC Paderborn 07.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
- W1-01. FC Köln16 October 2026
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07
Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 have met 6 times in the records we hold, SC Paderborn 07 has won 3 of them to Eintracht Frankfurt's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Eintracht Frankfurt won the last one 3–2 on 27 Jun 2020.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Jun 2020
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 3–2 SC Paderborn 07 - 22 Dec 2019
BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt - 14 Mar 2015
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 4–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 19 Oct 2014
BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt - 26 Feb 2012
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 4–2 Eintracht Frankfurt - 28 Aug 2011
2. BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 0–0 SC Paderborn 07
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.65 | 0.93 |
Leading scorers: SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib51
- J. Burkardt31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Paderborn 07 carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.81 for Eintracht Frankfurt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.65 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.07 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. SC Paderborn 07's attack/defence rating is 0.65/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.17 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
How the model reaches 39% for Eintracht Frankfurt to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Eintracht Frankfurt to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, SC Paderborn 07's ratings add 8 points and Eintracht Frankfurt's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- SC Paderborn 07's ratings41%+8
- Eintracht Frankfurt's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Paderborn 07 at home · Eintracht Frankfurt away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SC Paderborn 07Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Paderborn 07 are 16th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Eintracht Frankfurt are 11th after 6 (between 5th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Paderborn 07 6, Eintracht Frankfurt 6.
SC Paderborn 07 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Eintracht Frankfurt have let in 0 there.
Eintracht Frankfurt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SC Paderborn 07
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Nov · Bundesligawin 14%
- vs FC Schalke 0428 Nov · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Bayern München5 Dec · Bundesligawin 8%
Eintracht Frankfurt
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim21 Nov · Bundesligawin 45%
- at VfB Stuttgart28 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Werder Bremen5 Dec · Bundesligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.