Regular Season - 18 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Derby vs Watford Championship prediction

Pride Park, Derby

Our model says: Derby 1–0 Watford

The model makes it 43% Derby, 29% draw, 28% Watford — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Derby 1.37, Watford 0.99.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Derby's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Watford's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Derby are 23rd on 10 points from 15 games; Watford are 20th on 15 points from 15 games — Championship.
Derby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bolton.
Watford have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough.
Last 6 meetings: Watford 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Watford 2–0 Derby.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Derby vs Watford

48%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Derby win Draw Watford win

1–113%
1–012%
0–010%
2–09%
2–19%
0–19%
1–26%

Scores read Derby first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Derby at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Derby vs Watford

Derby

Championship

W3-1Bolton6 November 2026
L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026

Watford

Championship

D0-0Middlesbrough7 November 2026
W1-0Lincoln3 November 2026
L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
W2-0Charlton17 October 2026

What these results say

Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	-16	10
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	-10	15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Derby

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today

Win 41%

Draw 50%

Defeat 53%

Watford

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today

Win 27%

Draw 35%

Defeat 39%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Derby vs Watford

Derby and Watford have met 6 times in the records we hold, Watford has won 6 of them to Derby's 0.

The record

Watford won the last one 2–0 on 21 Feb 2026.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Derby	0	0	6	4	12
Watford	6	0	0	12	4

Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

21 Feb 2026
ChampionshipWatford 2–0 Derby
22 Nov 2025
ChampionshipDerby 2–3 Watford
18 Jan 2025
ChampionshipDerby 0–2 Watford
24 Aug 2024
ChampionshipWatford 2–1 Derby
19 Feb 2021
ChampionshipWatford 2–1 Derby
16 Oct 2020
ChampionshipDerby 0–1 Watford

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Derby's attack rates 19% above Watford's, and Watford concede 8% fewer than Derby. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Derby	0.63	1.56
Watford	0.53	1.43

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Watford (20th, with Derby 23rd), while our numbers lean to Derby. Derby rate 0.63 in attack and 1.56 in defence, Watford 0.53 and 1.43 (lower is better in defence), so Derby have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Derby Watford

0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53

1.56 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43

1.37 Model expected goals (this match) 0.99

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Derby the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Derby against 0.99 for Watford. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.43 for Watford.

Derby carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.36 for Watford. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Derby to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Derby to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Derby's ratings add 1 point and Watford's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−1
Derby's ratings42%+1
Watford's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

DerbyModelWatford

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

69%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

42%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

21%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

48%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

DerbyWatford

15Matches15

2W 4D 9LRecord4W 3D 8L

14 0.9 per gameGoals scored13 0.9 per game

30 2.0 per gameGoals conceded23 1.5 per game

1 of 15Clean sheets3 of 15

5 of 15Failed to score6 of 15

–Penalties scored–

33 2.2 per gameYellow cards40 2.7 per game

1Red cards0

4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Derby at home · Watford away

8Played7

1W 2D 5LRecord0W 1D 6L

7–15Goals for – against4–14

0 of 8Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

DerbyWatford

Derby are 23rd after 15 Championship matches (between 13th and 23rd so far); Watford are 20th after 15 (between 6th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Derby 15, Watford 15.

Derby scored 132313

Watford conceded 446322

Watford scored 341214

Derby conceded 567147

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Derby

at Middlesbrough5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
vs Bristol City9 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
at Blackburn12 Dec · Championshipwin 25%

Watford

vs Millwall5 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
at Birmingham8 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
at QPR12 Dec · Championshipwin 21%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.