Parma
vs
Bologna
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Parma 0–1 Bologna
The model makes it 27% Parma, 33% draw, 40% Bologna — fair odds of 3.70, 3.03 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Parma 0.81, Bologna 1.11.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,109 settled matches.
Edge to Bologna: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Parma's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Bologna's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Parma are 19th on 4 points from 7 games; Bologna are 15th on 5 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Torino.
- Bologna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter.
- Last 6 meetings: Bologna 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Bologna 0–1 Parma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Parma vs Bologna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Parma vs Bologna
Parma
Serie A
- L0-3Torino19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Inter10 October 2026
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
Bologna
Serie A
- L1-3Inter17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lecce11 October 2026
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Parma had three goals or more.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bologna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Parma
Bologna and Parma have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bologna has won 3 of them to Parma's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Parma won the last one 1–0 on 8 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Parma | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Feb 2026
Serie ABologna 0–1 Parma - 4 Dec 2025
Coppa ItaliaBologna 2–1 Parma - 2 Nov 2025
Serie AParma 1–3 Bologna - 22 Feb 2025
Serie AParma 2–0 Bologna - 6 Oct 2024
Serie ABologna 0–0 Parma - 7 Feb 2021
Serie AParma 0–3 Bologna
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
The two sides
Parma carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.83 for Bologna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Parma and 1.11 for Bologna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Parma rate 0.62 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bologna rate 0.89 and 0.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Parma against 1.11 for Bologna. Parma's attack/defence rating is 0.62/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.93 for Bologna.
How the model reaches 40% for Bologna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bologna to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Parma's ratings add 10 points and Bologna's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Parma's ratings43%+10
- Bologna's ratings40%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Parma at home · Bologna away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ParmaBologna
Parma are 19th after 7 Serie A matches (between 15th and 19th so far); Bologna are 15th after 7 (between 13th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Parma 7, Bologna 7.
Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Bologna have let in 3 there.
Bologna score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Parma have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Parma
- vs AS Roma21 Nov · Serie Awin 11%
- at Frosinone29 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
Bologna
- vs Udinese22 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Venezia29 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.