Beşiktaş
vs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Beşiktaş 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
The model makes it 64% Beşiktaş, 21% draw, 15% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 2.32, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.86.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
One-sided: Beşiktaş are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Beşiktaş's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 724 matches.
Key facts
- Beşiktaş are 6th on 15 points from 8 games; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 15th on 8 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Beşiktaş have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Trabzonspor.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Galatasaray.
- Last 6 meetings: Beşiktaş 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 Beşiktaş.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 64% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor19 October 2026
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gençlerbirliği S.K. had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. have met 6 times in the records we hold, Beşiktaş has won 4 of them to Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 2.
The record
Beşiktaş won the last one 2–0 on 15 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Mar 2026
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 Beşiktaş - 18 Oct 2025
Süper LigBeşiktaş 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 27 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsBeşiktaş 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 15 Feb 2021
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 0–3 Beşiktaş - 4 Oct 2020
Süper LigBeşiktaş 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 25 Jul 2020
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 0–3 Beşiktaş
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.64 | 1.30 |
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.5 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Beşiktaş and 0.86 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 1.08 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.64 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Beşiktaş a 5.8% chance of the title and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 0.86 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.3 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..
How the model reaches 64% for Beşiktaş to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Beşiktaş to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Beşiktaş's ratings add 2 points and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Beşiktaş's ratings45%+2
- Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings64%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beşiktaş at home · Gençlerbirliği S.K. away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BeşiktaşGençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş are 6th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 15th after 8 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Beşiktaş 8, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 8.
Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Gençlerbirliği S.K. have let in 2 there.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Beşiktaş
- at Konyaspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- vs Gaziantep FK21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
- at Samsunspor28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Eyüpspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.