Cruzeiro
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Cruzeiro 2–1 Bahia
The model makes it 51% Cruzeiro, 25% draw, 24% Bahia — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.94, Bahia 1.17.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Cruzeiro's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Bahia's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Cruzeiro are 4th on 51 points from 31 games; Bahia are 7th on 49 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Gremio.
- Bahia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Flamengo.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruzeiro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 51% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Cruzeiro
Serie A
- W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo8 October 2026
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
Bahia
Serie A
- L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cruzeiro
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Cruzeiro
Bahia and Cruzeiro have met 6 times in the records we hold, Cruzeiro has won 4 of them to Bahia's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Cruzeiro won the last one 2–1 on 10 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| Cruzeiro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 May 2026
Serie ABahia 1–2 Cruzeiro - 15 Sep 2025
Serie ABahia 1–2 Cruzeiro - 18 Apr 2025
Serie ACruzeiro 3–0 Bahia - 19 Oct 2024
Serie ACruzeiro 1–1 Bahia - 23 Jun 2024
Serie ABahia 4–1 Cruzeiro - 25 Oct 2023
Serie ACruzeiro 3–0 Bahia
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Bahia
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge112
- Matheus Pereira96
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruzeiro carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.74 for Bahia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.17 for Bahia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruzeiro rate 1.11 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bahia rate 0.89 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 1.17 for Bahia. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.11 for Bahia.
How the model reaches 51% for Cruzeiro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cruzeiro to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Cruzeiro's ratings change nothing and Bahia's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Cruzeiro's ratings45%±0
- Bahia's ratings51%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cruzeiro at home · Bahia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Cruzeiro 31, Bahia 31.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Bahia have let in 4 there.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cruzeiro
- vs Palmeiras18 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Chapecoense22 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- at Fluminense29 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
Bahia
- at Gremio18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Coritiba22 Nov · Serie Awin 56%
- at Botafogo29 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.