Monza
vs
Atalanta
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Monza 1–2 Atalanta
The model makes it 29% Monza, 24% draw, 47% Atalanta — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Monza 1.46, Atalanta 2.02.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Edge to Atalanta: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Monza's rating is built from 8 Serie A matches and Atalanta's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Monza are 15th on 7 points from 8 games; Atalanta are 11th on 9 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Monza have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Torino.
- Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to AC Milan.
- Last 6 meetings: Atalanta 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2025, ended Monza 0–4 Atalanta.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monza vs Atalanta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Monza vs Atalanta
Monza
Serie A
- L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
- W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026
- L1-3away to Lazio11 October 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
Atalanta
Serie A
- L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
What these results say
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Monza had three goals or more.
- Monza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Monza
Atalanta and Monza have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atalanta has won 6 of them to Monza's 0.
The record
Atalanta won the last one 4–0 on 4 May 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 |
| Monza | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 May 2025
Serie AMonza 0–4 Atalanta - 30 Oct 2024
Serie AAtalanta 2–0 Monza - 21 Apr 2024
Serie AMonza 1–2 Atalanta - 2 Sep 2023
Serie AAtalanta 3–0 Monza - 4 Jun 2023
Serie AAtalanta 5–2 Monza - 5 Sep 2022
Serie AMonza 0–2 Atalanta
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Monza and Atalanta
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela71
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Monza carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.02 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Monza and 2.02 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monza rate 1.24 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.18 and 0.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monza a 0% chance of the title and Atalanta 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Monza against 2.02 for Atalanta. Monza's attack/defence rating is 1.24/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/0.84 for Atalanta.
How the model reaches 47% for Atalanta to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atalanta to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Monza's ratings add 4 points and Atalanta's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Monza's ratings37%+4
- Atalanta's ratings47%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monza at home · Atalanta away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MonzaAtalanta
Monza are 15th after 8 Serie A matches (between 13th and 20th so far); Atalanta are 11th after 7 (between 4th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Monza 8, Atalanta 7.
Monza score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Atalanta have let in 2 there.
Atalanta score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Monza have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Monza
- vs Fiorentina23 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- at AS Roma29 Nov · Serie Awin 12%
- vs Como6 Dec · Serie Awin 22%
Atalanta
- vs Inter22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.