Atalanta
vs
Inter
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atalanta 1–2 Inter
The model makes it 22% Atalanta, 24% draw, 54% Inter — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 1.19, Inter 2.14.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Inter are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Atalanta's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Inter's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Atalanta are 12th on 14 points from 11 games; Inter are 2nd on 28 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Monza.
- Inter have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Como.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Inter 1–1 Atalanta.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atalanta vs Inter
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Inter
Atalanta
Serie A
- W1-0away to Monza8 November 2026
- L0-3Parma2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Fiorentina29 October 2026
- D4-4Frosinone25 October 2026
- L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026
Inter
Serie A
- W2-0Como8 November 2026
- L1-3away to AC Milan31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia28 October 2026
- W2-1Fiorentina25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Inter
Chance to win the league · 44% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Inter
Atalanta and Inter have met 6 times in the records we hold, Inter has won 5 of them to Atalanta's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Inter on 14 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| Inter | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Mar 2026
Serie AInter 1–1 Atalanta - 28 Dec 2025
Serie AAtalanta 0–1 Inter - 16 Mar 2025
Serie AAtalanta 0–2 Inter - 2 Jan 2025
Super CupInter 2–0 Atalanta - 30 Aug 2024
Serie AInter 4–0 Atalanta - 28 Feb 2024
Serie AInter 4–0 Atalanta
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Inter's attack rates 54% above Atalanta's, and Inter concede 22% fewer than Atalanta. That gives Inter the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Inter
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atalanta a 0% chance of the title and Inter 44.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Atalanta against 2.14 for Inter. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.79/0.73 for Inter.
How the model reaches 54% for Inter to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Inter to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Atalanta's ratings add 10 points and Inter's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Atalanta's ratings44%+10
- Inter's ratings54%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Atalanta at home · Inter away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AtalantaInter
Atalanta are 12th after 11 Serie A matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Inter are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atalanta 11, Inter 11.
Inter score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Atalanta have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atalanta
- at Borac Banja Luka26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 48%
- at Lecce29 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
- at Lazio6 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Genoa13 Dec · Serie Awin 45%
- vs Mjallby AIF17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 81%
Inter
- vs VfB Stuttgart25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 64%
- vs Genoa29 Nov · Serie Awin 65%
- at Frosinone6 Dec · Serie Awin 54%
- at Borussia Dortmund9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs Torino13 Dec · Serie Awin 69%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.