Parma
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Parma 0–2 AS Roma
The model makes it 13% Parma, 23% draw, 64% AS Roma — fair odds of 7.69, 4.35 and 1.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).
Expected goals: Parma 0.64, AS Roma 2.02.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Parma's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and AS Roma's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Parma are 16th on 8 points from 11 games; AS Roma are 3rd on 27 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bologna.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Parma 2–3 AS Roma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Parma vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Parma vs AS Roma
Parma
Serie A
- L1-2Bologna7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Atalanta2 November 2026
- D0-0Udinese28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lazio24 October 2026
- L0-3Torino19 October 2026
AS Roma
Serie A
- W3-0Sassuolo7 November 2026
- W5-2away to Udinese31 October 2026
- W4-2Cagliari27 October 2026
- D3-3away to Napoli24 October 2026
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
What these results say
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Parma had three goals or more.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Parma
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
AS Roma
Chance to win the league · 41% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Parma
AS Roma and Parma have met 6 times in the records we hold, AS Roma has won 5 of them to Parma's 1.
The record
AS Roma won the last one 3–2 on 10 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 |
| Parma | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 May 2026
Serie AParma 2–3 AS Roma - 29 Oct 2025
Serie AAS Roma 2–1 Parma - 16 Feb 2025
Serie AParma 0–1 AS Roma - 22 Dec 2024
Serie AAS Roma 5–0 Parma - 14 Mar 2021
Serie AParma 2–0 AS Roma - 22 Nov 2020
Serie AAS Roma 3–0 Parma
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AS Roma's attack rates 149% above Parma's, and AS Roma concede 28% fewer than Parma. That gives AS Roma the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Parma and AS Roma
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Parma a 0% chance of the title and AS Roma 41.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Parma v AS Roma has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 14% / 24% / 62% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 13% / 23% / 64%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Parma win13%▼ −1
- Draw23%▼ −1
- AS Roma win64%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Parma against 2.02 for AS Roma. Parma's attack/defence rating is 0.68/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.69/0.67 for AS Roma.
How the model reaches 64% for AS Roma to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AS Roma to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Parma's ratings add 13 points and AS Roma's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Parma's ratings46%+13
- AS Roma's ratings64%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Parma at home · AS Roma away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ParmaAS Roma
Parma are 16th after 11 Serie A matches (between 15th and 19th so far); AS Roma are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Parma 11, AS Roma 11.
Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); AS Roma have let in 4 there.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Parma have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Parma
- at Frosinone29 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
- at AC Milan6 Dec · Serie Awin 17%
- vs Fiorentina13 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
- at Sassuolo20 Dec · Serie Awin 31%
- vs Napoli3 Jan · Serie Awin 19%
AS Roma
- at Paris Saint Germain25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 20%
- vs Monza29 Nov · Serie Awin 76%
- at Bologna6 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Sporting CP8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at Lazio13 Dec · Serie Awin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.