1. FC Köln
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 20% 1. FC Köln, 22% draw, 58% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.17, Bayer Leverkusen 2.37.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. 1. FC Köln's rating is built from 41 Bundesliga matches and Bayer Leverkusen's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 677 matches.
Key facts
- 1. FC Köln are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 13 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Köln have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC Schalke 04.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to SC Freiburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended 1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 58% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
- D0-0FC Schalke 0424 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bayer Leverkusen has won 5 of them to 1. FC Köln's 1.
The record
Bayer Leverkusen won the last one 2–1 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
Bundesliga1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen - 13 Dec 2025
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 2–0 1. FC Köln - 5 Feb 2025
DFB PokalBayer Leverkusen 3–2 1. FC Köln - 3 Mar 2024
Bundesliga1. FC Köln 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen - 8 Oct 2023
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 3–0 1. FC Köln - 5 May 2023
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 1–2 1. FC Köln
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 0.77 | 1.09 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.41 | 0.83 |
Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1. FC Köln carry a model rating of 6.68 against 7.12 for Bayer Leverkusen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.37 for Bayer Leverkusen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Köln rate 0.77 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.41 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Köln a 0% chance of the title and Bayer Leverkusen 10.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 2.37 for Bayer Leverkusen. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.41/0.83 for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the model reaches 58% for Bayer Leverkusen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bayer Leverkusen to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, 1. FC Köln's ratings add 9 points and Bayer Leverkusen's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- 1. FC Köln's ratings42%+9
- Bayer Leverkusen's ratings58%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Köln at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC KölnBayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln are 11th after 7 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Bayer Leverkusen are 4th after 6 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Köln 7, Bayer Leverkusen 6.
Bayer Leverkusen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Köln
- at Bayern München20 Nov · Bundesligawin 7%
- vs SV Elversberg28 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- at FC Augsburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs RB Leipzig12 Dec · Bundesligawin 20%
Bayer Leverkusen
- vs SC Paderborn 0721 Nov · Bundesligawin 64%
- at Dinamo Zagreb26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.