Estrela
vs
Benfica
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Estrela 0–2 Benfica
The model makes it 14% Estrela, 18% draw, 68% Benfica — fair odds of 7.14, 5.56 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Estrela 1.00, Benfica 2.76.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Estrela's rating is built from 43 Primeira Liga matches and Benfica's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Estrela are 10th on 10 points from 9 games; Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Estrela are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Casa Pia.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Benfica 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Benfica 4–0 Estrela.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estrela vs Benfica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 68% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Estrela vs Benfica
Estrela
Primeira Liga
- L0-2Casa Pia24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
Benfica
Primeira Liga
- W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
What these results say
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estrela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Benfica
- 25 January 2026Benfica 4–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 16 August 2025Estrela 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 2 February 2025Estrela 2–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 23 November 2024Benfica 7–0 EstrelaTaça de Portugal
- 24 August 2024Benfica 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 29 January 2024Estrela 1–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Benfica
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
- L. Antonetti41
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis83
- G. Prestianni53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Estrela carry a model rating of 6.64 against 7.24 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Estrela and 2.76 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estrela rate 0.88 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.62 and 0.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Estrela a 0% chance of the title and Benfica 26.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Estrela against 2.76 for Benfica. Estrela's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.75 for Benfica.
How the model reaches 68% for Benfica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benfica to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Estrela's ratings add 12 points and Benfica's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 68%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Estrela's ratings44%+12
- Benfica's ratings68%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estrela at home · Benfica away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Estrela 9, Benfica 8.
Estrela score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Benfica have let in 1 there.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Estrela have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Estrela
- at Vitória SC28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- vs GIL Vicente6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- at FC Porto13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 8%
- vs Maritimo20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 49%
Benfica
- at Plzen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 53%
- vs Famalicao30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.