Regular Season - 7 · 13 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Hafezieh Stadium, Shiraz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Fajr Sepasi 2-1 Aluminium Arak.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Fajr Sepasi, 27% draw, 37% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Fajr Sepasi 1.47, Aluminium Arak 1.50.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 8%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aluminium Arak at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fajr Sepasi99%Draw1%Aluminium Arak0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁M. Rigiout: F. Arab
46'
⚽F. Arabassist: S. Fadakar
47'
55'
🔁M. Motlaghzadehout: A. Amanipour
55'
🔁B. Goudarziout: A. Sadeghi
56'
🔁A. Vatandoustout: R. Jubere
🔁M. Sharifiout: A. Moredi
74'
74'
🔁S. Sadeghiout: A. Latifi
🔁S. Tavakoliout: M. Faramarzi
75'
76'
🔁A. Ghanbariout: R. Zolfipour
76'
M. Mahdavi
⚽F. Arabassist: A. Moredi
77'
F. Arab
78'
90+4'
⚽R. Zolfipourassist: M. Mahdavi

Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

Fajr Sepasi

  • L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Foolad FC7 September 2026
  • D1-1Mes Shahr-e Babak3 September 2026
  • D0-0ZOB Ahan29 August 2026

Aluminium Arak

  • D1-1Malavan8 October 2026
  • D0-0Esteghlal FC6 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Gol Gohar1 September 2026
  • D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fajr Sepasi did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Fajr Sepasi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Fajr Sepasi had two goals or fewer.
  • Aluminium Arak went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Aluminium Arak failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aluminium Arak scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Fajr Sepasi8242610-410
6Aluminium Arak8341106+413

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

  • 13 October 2026Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 29 November 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 3 April 2022Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 December 2021Aluminium Arak 2–0 Fajr SepasiHazfi Cup
  • 10 December 2021Aluminium Arak 1–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 7 January 2020Fajr Sepasi 1–2 Aluminium ArakAzadegan League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.47 goals for Fajr Sepasi and 1.50 for Aluminium Arak; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: F. Arab 47' (Fajr Sepasi), F. Arab 77' (Fajr Sepasi), R. Zolfipour 90' (Aluminium Arak).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aluminium Arak the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Fajr Sepasi against 1.50 for Aluminium Arak. Fajr Sepasi's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.51 for Aluminium Arak.