Wuhan Three Towns
vs
Shandong Luneng
Super League prediction
Our model says: Wuhan Three Towns 2–1 Shandong Luneng
The model makes it 38% Wuhan Three Towns, 24% draw, 38% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.83, Shandong Luneng 1.80.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wuhan Three Towns are 15th on 22 points from 27 games; Shandong Luneng are 4th on 38 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Wuhan Three Towns are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Shenyang Urban.
- Shandong Luneng are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Last 6 meetings: Shandong Luneng 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 July 2026, ended Wuhan Three Towns 2–2 Shandong Luneng.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wuhan Three Towns at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng
Wuhan Three Towns
- D1-1away to Shenyang Urban11 October 2026
- L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026
- D1-1Henan Jianye12 September 2026
- D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
Shandong Luneng
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long11 October 2026
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
What these results say
- Wuhan Three Towns scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Wuhan Three Towns.
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shandong Luneng.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wuhan Three Towns
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
Shandong Luneng
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng
- 21 July 2026Wuhan Three Towns 2–2 Shandong LunengFA Cup
- 24 May 2026Shandong Luneng 3–3 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 22 November 2025Wuhan Three Towns 1–5 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 25 June 2025Shandong Luneng 3–1 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 21 September 2024Shandong Luneng 0–0 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 11 May 2024Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shandong LunengSuper League
Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng
Wuhan Three Towns
GoalsAssists
- J. Cádiz186
Shandong Luneng
GoalsAssists
- Cryzan166
- Zeca94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wuhan Three Towns carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.32 for Shandong Luneng. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.80 for Shandong Luneng. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.53 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shandong Luneng rate 0.63 and 1.82.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shandong Luneng, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wuhan Three Towns the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.80 for Shandong Luneng. Wuhan Three Towns's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.82 for Shandong Luneng.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wuhan Three Towns at home · Shandong Luneng away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Wuhan Three Towns 27, Shandong Luneng 27.
Wuhan Three Towns score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Shandong Luneng have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Wuhan Three Towns
- at Yunnan Yukun8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 29%
Shandong Luneng
- vs Chengdu Better City8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.