Sichuan Jiuniu
vs
Shanghai Shenhua
Super League prediction
Our model says: Sichuan Jiuniu 1–2 Shanghai Shenhua
The model makes it 33% Sichuan Jiuniu, 23% draw, 44% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77, Shanghai Shenhua 2.13.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Shanghai Shenhua: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sichuan Jiuniu are 11th on 29 points from 27 games; Shanghai Shenhua are 8th on 34 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Sichuan Jiuniu are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Henan Jianye.
- Shanghai Shenhua have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 7-1 win at home to Yunnan Yukun.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shanghai Shenhua at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D2-2Henan Jianye9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
- W7-1Yunnan Yukun10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026
- L2-3Shandong Luneng28 August 2026
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
What these results say
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shanghai Shenhua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Shanghai Shenhua had three goals or more.
- Shanghai Shenhua scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 47 | +12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sichuan Jiuniu
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Shanghai Shenhua
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua
- 24 May 2026Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 31 October 2025Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 14 June 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 3–1 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 27 October 2024Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 17 July 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Shanghai ShenhuaFA Cup
- 26 May 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–1 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes125
Shanghai Shenhua
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Ratão181
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sichuan Jiuniu carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.41 for Shanghai Shenhua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.13 for Shanghai Shenhua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.48 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.77 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu against 2.13 for Shanghai Shenhua. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.95 for Shanghai Shenhua.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sichuan Jiuniu at home · Shanghai Shenhua away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Sichuan Jiuniu 27, Shanghai Shenhua 27.
Sichuan Jiuniu score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Shanghai Shenhua have let in 14 there.
Shanghai Shenhua score most often in the 61–75 minute window (14 goals); Sichuan Jiuniu have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Sichuan Jiuniu
- at Qingdao Jonoon8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
Shanghai Shenhua
- vs Qingdao Youth Island8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.