Tianjin Teda
vs
SHANGHAI SIPG
Super League prediction
Our model says: Tianjin Teda 1–0 SHANGHAI SIPG
The model makes it 40% Tianjin Teda, 28% draw, 32% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tianjin Teda 1.41, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.20.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tianjin Teda are 12th on 28 points from 27 games; SHANGHAI SIPG are 7th on 36 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Tianjin Teda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Chengdu Better City.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Hangzhou Greentown.
- Last 6 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Tianjin Teda.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tianjin Teda at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Tianjin Teda
- W1-0away to Chengdu Better City10 October 2026
- W1-0Shenyang Urban12 September 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
- D1-1Qingdao Youth Island29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W4-2away to Hangzhou Greentown9 October 2026
- D0-0Beijing Guoan5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sichuan Jiuniu28 August 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon23 August 2026
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing19 August 2026
What these results say
- Tianjin Teda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Tianjin Teda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tianjin Teda had two goals or fewer.
- SHANGHAI SIPG went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SHANGHAI SIPG scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 28 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 35 | +9 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tianjin Teda
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
SHANGHAI SIPG
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- 23 May 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Tianjin TedaSuper League
- 24 August 2025SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Tianjin TedaSuper League
- 16 April 2025Tianjin Teda 1–4 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 2 November 2024SHANGHAI SIPG 5–0 Tianjin TedaSuper League
- 22 August 2024SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Tianjin TedaFA Cup
- 14 June 2024Tianjin Teda 0–3 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
Leading scorers: Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG
Tianjin Teda
GoalsAssists
- Alberto Quiles114
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- Leonardo92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tianjin Teda carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.39 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.20 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tianjin Teda rate 0.49 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.61 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SHANGHAI SIPG, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tianjin Teda the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tianjin Teda against 1.20 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Tianjin Teda's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.52 for SHANGHAI SIPG.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tianjin Teda at home · SHANGHAI SIPG away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Tianjin Teda 27, SHANGHAI SIPG 27.
Tianjin Teda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); SHANGHAI SIPG have let in 6 there.
SHANGHAI SIPG score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Tianjin Teda have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tianjin Teda
- at Dalian Zhixing8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 31%
SHANGHAI SIPG
- vs Công An Nhân Dân27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 51%
- at Newcastle Jets3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- vs Shenyang Urban8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 61%
- vs Buriram United24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.