Wrexham
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
The model makes it 44% Wrexham, 26% draw, 30% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.54, Birmingham 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Birmingham
- 12 April 2026Birmingham 2–0 WrexhamChampionship
- 3 October 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 23 January 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamLeague One
- 16 September 2024Birmingham 3–1 WrexhamLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.94 for Birmingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Wrexham and 1.25 for Birmingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 1.06 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Birmingham rate 0.89 and 0.77.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.25 for Birmingham. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.77 for Birmingham.