Austria Lustenau
vs
WSG Wattens
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 33% Austria Lustenau, 28% draw, 39% WSG Wattens — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.17, WSG Wattens 1.29.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Lustenau
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
WSG Wattens
- L1-3away to SCR Altach7 August 2026
- D1-1Sturm Graz1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens
- 31 January 2026Austria Lustenau 0–6 WSG WattensFriendlies Clubs
- 27 April 2024WSG Wattens 0–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 30 March 2024Austria Lustenau 1–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 11 February 2024WSG Wattens 0–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 17 September 2023Austria Lustenau 2–3 WSG WattensBundesliga
The two sides
Austria Lustenau carry a model rating of 6 against 6.23 for WSG Wattens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Lustenau D-L; WSG Wattens D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.29 for WSG Wattens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Lustenau rate 0.41 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; WSG Wattens rate 0.41 and 1.51.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Austria Lustenau, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives WSG Wattens the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 1.29 for WSG Wattens. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.51 for WSG Wattens.