Blackburn
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
The model makes it 40% Blackburn, 26% draw, 34% QPR — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.48, QPR 1.35.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Blackburn
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
QPR
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. QPR has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs QPR
- 14 February 2026QPR 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
- 26 November 2025Blackburn 0–1 QPRChampionship
- 4 February 2025QPR 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 28 September 2024Blackburn 2–0 QPRChampionship
- 3 February 2024Blackburn 1–2 QPRChampionship
- 7 October 2023QPR 0–4 BlackburnChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.83 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Blackburn D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Blackburn and 1.35 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.90 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.82 and 0.87.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.35 for QPR. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.87 for QPR.