Wolves
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
The model makes it 56% Wolves, 22% draw, 22% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wolves 2.04, Stoke City 1.20.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wolves
- D2-2Blackburn14 August 2026
Stoke City
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. Stoke City has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Stoke City
- 26 July 2025Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Wolves 0–0 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2020Wolves 0–1 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 7 January 2017Stoke City 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
- 7 April 2012Stoke City 2–1 WolvesPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wolves carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.7 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wolves D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Wolves and 1.20 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolves rate 0.99 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.80 and 1.09.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Wolves against 1.2 for Stoke City. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.09 for Stoke City.