Norwich
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
The model makes it 68% Norwich, 20% draw, 12% Burnley — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Norwich 2.20, Burnley 0.83.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Burnley
- 11 April 2025Burnley 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 15 December 2024Norwich 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 4 February 2023Norwich 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 25 October 2022Burnley 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 10 April 2022Norwich 2–0 BurnleyPremier League
- 2 October 2021Burnley 0–0 NorwichPremier League
The two sides
Norwich carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.66 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Norwich and 0.83 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Norwich rate 1.13 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.68 and 1.03.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Norwich against 0.83 for Burnley. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.03 for Burnley.