Watford
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
The model makes it 45% Watford, 23% draw, 32% West Ham — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Watford 1.82, West Ham 1.51.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Watford vs West Ham
- 8 February 2022West Ham 1–0 WatfordPremier League
- 28 December 2021Watford 1–4 West HamPremier League
- 17 July 2020West Ham 3–1 WatfordPremier League
- 24 August 2019Watford 1–3 West HamPremier League
- 12 May 2019Watford 1–4 West HamPremier League
- 22 December 2018West Ham 0–2 WatfordPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Watford carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.89 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Watford and 1.51 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 1.06 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 0.98 and 0.91.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Watford the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Watford against 1.51 for West Ham. Watford's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.91 for West Ham.