Mes Shahr-e Babak
vs
Persepolis FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–2 Persepolis FC
The model makes it 22% Mes Shahr-e Babak, 24% draw, 54% Persepolis FC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.19, Persepolis FC 2.14.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Persepolis FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mes Shahr-e Babak are 17th on 5 points from 8 games; Persepolis FC are top on 17 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Foolad FC.
- Persepolis FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Kheybar Khorramabad.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Persepolis FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Persepolis FC at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Persepolis FC
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026
- D1-1Nassaji Mazandaran13 September 2026
- L1-2Malavan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fajr Sepasi3 September 2026
- D0-0Sanat Naft29 August 2026
Persepolis FC
- D0-0away to Kheybar Khorramabad14 October 2026
- W3-1Sanat Naft9 October 2026
- W2-0ZOB Ahan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Esteghlal FC2 September 2026
- W3-0Malavan29 August 2026
What these results say
- Mes Shahr-e Babak did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Persepolis FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Persepolis FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 72% today
Persepolis FC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 30% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Mes Shahr-e Babak carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.62 for Persepolis FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak and 2.14 for Persepolis FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mes Shahr-e Babak rate 0.55 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Persepolis FC rate 0.84 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mes Shahr-e Babak a 0% chance of the title and Persepolis FC 29.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Persepolis FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak against 2.14 for Persepolis FC. Mes Shahr-e Babak's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.33 for Persepolis FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mes Shahr-e Babak at home · Persepolis FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Mes Shahr-e Babak 8, Persepolis FC 8.
Mes Shahr-e Babak score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Persepolis FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- at Sepahan FC25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 11%
- vs Paykan31 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Aluminium Arak6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 19%
Persepolis FC
- vs Foolad FC25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 52%
- at Nassaji Mazandaran30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 46%
- vs Fajr Sepasi6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.