Widzew Łódź
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Widzew Łódź 1–0 Wisla Krakow
The model makes it 36% Widzew Łódź, 29% draw, 35% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.37, Wisla Krakow 1.33.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Widzew Łódź are 12th on 9 points from 9 games; Wisla Krakow are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Widzew Łódź have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Wisla Krakow are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Slask Wroclaw.
- Last 2 meetings: Wisla Krakow 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2024, ended Wisla Krakow 2–1 Widzew Łódź.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Widzew Łódź at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
Widzew Łódź
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
- D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
- L2-3Lech Poznan30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Slask Wroclaw22 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- 28 February 2024Wisla Krakow 2–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 2 December 2021Widzew Łódź 1–3 Wisla KrakowCup
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Wisla Krakow
- Ángel Rodado4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Widzew Łódź carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.74 for Wisla Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.33 for Wisla Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Widzew Łódź rate 0.71 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Krakow rate 0.93 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Krakow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Widzew Łódź a 0.2% chance of the title and Wisla Krakow 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Widzew Łódź the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 1.33 for Wisla Krakow. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.17 for Wisla Krakow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Widzew Łódź at home · Wisla Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Widzew Łódź 9, Wisla Krakow 9.
Widzew Łódź score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Wisla Krakow have let in 1 there.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Widzew Łódź
- vs Gornik Zabrze23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- at GKS Katowice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 27%
- vs Pogon Szczecin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Raków Częstochowa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
Wisla Krakow
- vs Raków Częstochowa24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- at Lech Poznan31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Cracovia Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- at Radomiak Radom21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.