GKS Katowice
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: GKS Katowice 2–1 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 41% GKS Katowice, 28% draw, 31% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.60, Pogon Szczecin 1.24.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Pogon Szczecin are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Ekstraklasa.
- GKS Katowice have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Cracovia Krakow.
- Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Piast Gliwice.
- Last 4 meetings: GKS Katowice 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–1 GKS Katowice.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
- 23 May 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2025GKS Katowice 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 27 September 2024GKS Katowice 3–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin6 goals1 assist
Pogon Szczecin
- Jordi Sánchez8 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.73 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 0.96 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.78 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogon Szczecin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GKS Katowice a 3.3% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.01 for Pogon Szczecin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GKS Katowice at home · Pogon Szczecin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: GKS Katowice 8, Pogon Szczecin 8.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Pogon Szczecin have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GKS Katowice
- at Korona Kielce24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Widzew Łódź31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Pogon Szczecin
- vs Radomiak Radom24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Raków Częstochowa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Widzew Łódź7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Slask Wroclaw21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.