Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wieczysta Kraków 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
The model makes it 38% Wieczysta Kraków, 26% draw, 36% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.93, Raków Częstochowa 1.83.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wieczysta Kraków are 17th on 5 points from 8 games; Raków Częstochowa are bottom on 3 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wieczysta Kraków have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Widzew Łódź.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Korona Kielce.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wieczysta Kraków at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
What these results say
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wieczysta Kraków carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.64 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.83 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.82 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.91 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wieczysta Kraków a 0% chance of the title and Raków Częstochowa 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wieczysta Kraków the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.83 for Raków Częstochowa. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.42 for Raków Częstochowa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wieczysta Kraków at home · Raków Częstochowa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wieczysta Kraków 8, Raków Częstochowa 9.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 4 there.
Raków Częstochowa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wieczysta Kraków
- at Slask Wroclaw25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Jagiellonia31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Gornik Zabrze7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 21%
Raków Częstochowa
- at Wisla Krakow24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 27%
- vs Pogon Szczecin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- at Legia Warszawa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- vs Widzew Łódź21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.