Cracovia Krakow
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 28% Cracovia Krakow, 30% draw, 42% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 0.99, Legia Warszawa 1.47.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Cracovia Krakow are 13th on 8 points from 9 games; Legia Warszawa are 2nd on 19 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Cracovia Krakow are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to GKS Katowice.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Jagiellonia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Legia Warszawa 1–0 Cracovia Krakow.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
- W3-2Wieczysta Kraków21 August 2026
Legia Warszawa
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
- 8 March 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 18 May 2025Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2024Legia Warszawa 3–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 20 December 2023Cracovia Krakow 2–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 17 December 2023Legia Warszawa 2–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow
- A. Hasić3 goals2 assists
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak4 goals2 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.83 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.47 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.62 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.92 and 0.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cracovia Krakow a 0% chance of the title and Legia Warszawa 17.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.47 for Legia Warszawa. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.96 for Legia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cracovia Krakow at home · Legia Warszawa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Cracovia Krakow 9, Legia Warszawa 9.
Cracovia Krakow score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cracovia Krakow
- at Piast Gliwice24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 26%
- vs Motor Lublin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- at Wisla Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Jagiellonia21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 33%
Legia Warszawa
- vs Lech Poznan25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Gornik Zabrze31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Raków Częstochowa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- at Wisla Plock21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.