Radnik Surdulica
vs
Radnicki NIS
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NIS
The model makes it 40% Radnik Surdulica, 30% draw, 30% Radnicki NIS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Radnik Surdulica 1.49, Radnicki NIS 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Radnik Surdulica are 7th on 14 points from 10 games; Radnicki NIS are 12th on 8 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Radnik Surdulica are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 4-4 draw at home to FK Partizan.
- Radnicki NIS have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FK Crvena Zvezda.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NIS.
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnik Surdulica at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
Radnik Surdulica
- D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026
Radnicki NIS
- L0-3away to FK Crvena Zvezda20 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mladost Lucani5 September 2026
- D1-1Radnicki 192329 August 2026
- L0-1away to Macva22 August 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnicki NIS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnicki NIS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
- 8 March 2026Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 3 October 2025Radnicki NIS 4–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 21 April 2024Radnicki NIS 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 3 March 2024Radnicki NIS 0–3 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 22 September 2023Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 27 April 2023Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS
Radnik Surdulica
- V. Bogdanović5 goals
- M. Novaković2 goals2 assists
Radnicki NIS
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnik Surdulica carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.22 for Radnicki NIS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Radnik Surdulica and 1.14 for Radnicki NIS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Surdulica rate 0.55 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki NIS rate 0.47 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnik Surdulica the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica against 1.14 for Radnicki NIS. Radnik Surdulica's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.69 for Radnicki NIS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnik Surdulica at home · Radnicki NIS away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Radnik Surdulica 10, Radnicki NIS 9.
Radnicki NIS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Radnik Surdulica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Radnik Surdulica
- at Radnicki 192324 Oct · Super Ligawin 25%
- at Mladost Lucani1 Nov · Super Ligawin 34%
- vs OFK Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 42%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 15%
Radnicki NIS
- vs Novi Pazar24 Oct · Super Ligawin 39%
- vs Železničar Pančevo1 Nov · Super Ligawin 32%
- at Cukaricki7 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.