Motor Lublin
vs
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Motor Lublin 2–1 Slask Wroclaw
The model makes it 40% Motor Lublin, 28% draw, 32% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.61, Slask Wroclaw 1.30.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Motor Lublin are 16th on 6 points from 9 games; Slask Wroclaw are 15th on 6 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Motor Lublin have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Slask Wroclaw have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Wisla Krakow.
- Last 2 meetings: Motor Lublin 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2025, ended Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Motor Lublin.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motor Lublin at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
What these results say
- Motor Lublin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw
- 5 April 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2024Motor Lublin 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.55 for Slask Wroclaw. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.30 for Slask Wroclaw. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.71 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slask Wroclaw rate 0.75 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slask Wroclaw, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.30 for Slask Wroclaw. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.37 for Slask Wroclaw.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Motor Lublin at home · Slask Wroclaw away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Motor Lublin 9, Slask Wroclaw 9.
Motor Lublin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Slask Wroclaw have let in 5 there.
Slask Wroclaw score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Motor Lublin have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Motor Lublin
- vs Zaglebie Lubin23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Cracovia Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Wisla Plock7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
Slask Wroclaw
- vs Wieczysta Kraków25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- at Radomiak Radom31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- vs Piast Gliwice7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Pogon Szczecin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.