West Ham
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
The model makes it 55% West Ham, 22% draw, 23% Derby — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: West Ham 2.10, Derby 1.31.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
West Ham
- D2-2away to Burnley16 August 2026
Derby
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | West Ham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: West Ham vs Derby
- 30 January 2023Derby 0–2 West HamFA Cup
- 31 December 2011Derby 2–1 West HamChampionship
- 26 November 2011West Ham 3–1 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers
West Ham
No league goals recorded yet.
Derby
- S. Szmodics1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
West Ham carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.82 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): West Ham D; Derby L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for West Ham and 1.31 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Ham rate 1.01 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 1.03 and 1.10.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for West Ham against 1.31 for Derby. West Ham's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.1 for Derby.