5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Stoke City vs Charlton Championship prediction & result

Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Stoke City 4-0 Charlton.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stoke City, 29% draw, 31% Charlton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stoke City at 40% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stoke City99%Draw1%Charlton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Justin Devenny (pen)
15'
⚽Ethan Galbraith
22'
⚽George Hirstassist: Eric Junior Bocat
25'
26'
🔁Tyreece Campbellout: Dan McNamara
🔁Sam Gallagherout: Róbert Boženík
34'
⚽Justin Devennyassist: Eric Junior Bocat
40'
45+3'
Miles Leaburn
Ethan Galbraith
45+5'
45'
🔁Timothy Oumaout: Conor Coventry
48'
Dan McNamara
🔁George Hirstout: Lamine Cissé
57'
🔁Justin Devennyout: Jack Mcglynn
58'
🔁Bosun Lawalout: Maksym Taloverov
58'
62'
Conor Coventry
72'
🔁Miles Leaburnout: Micah Mbick
72'
🔁Joe Rankin-Costelloout: Millenic Alli
79'
🔁Karlan Grantout: Robert Apter
🔁El Hadji Soumareout: Ben Pearson
79'

Match stats — Stoke City vs Charlton

63%Possession37%
17Shots13
8On target3
5Corners3

Line-ups

Stoke City 3-5-2
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 13J. DevennyM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 17E. BocatM
  • 20S. GallagherF
  • 15G. HirstF
Substitutes
  • 21L. BombinoD
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 11L. CisséF
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 7J. McGlynnM
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 40M. TalovierovD
Coach: M. Robins
Charlton 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. OkonkwoG
  • 18I. MesíkD
  • 5L. JonesD
  • 44Tyler BindonD
  • 17A. BellD
  • 16T. OumaM
  • 34O. SkippM
  • 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
  • 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
  • 7T. CampbellM
  • 11M. LeaburnF
Substitutes
  • 19M. AlliF
  • 30R. ApterM
  • 21T. BrooksG
  • 14S. CareyM
  • 6C. CoventryM
  • 8H. KnibbsM
  • 33Micah MbickF
  • 20D. McNamaraD
  • 32A. MwambaD
Coach: N. Jones

Form going into Stoke City vs Charlton

Stoke City

  • W1-0Norwich1 September 2026

Charlton

  • D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Stoke City84131312+113
9Charlton8332710-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Charlton

  • 5 September 2026Stoke City 4–0 CharltonChampionship
  • 11 February 2026Charlton 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 25 November 2025Stoke City 3–0 CharltonChampionship
  • 8 February 2020Stoke City 3–1 CharltonChampionship
  • 10 August 2019Charlton 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Charlton

Stoke City

  • E. Galbraith3 goals1 assist

Charlton

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.