Dinamo Bucuresti
vs
FCSB
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 54% Dinamo Bucuresti, 19% draw, 27% FCSB — fair odds of 1.85, 5.26 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Bucuresti 2.55, FCSB 1.81.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dinamo Bucuresti
- W1-0away to Rapid15 August 2026
- W4-0FC Voluntari8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Oțelul31 July 2026
- W5-1Universitatea Craiova25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti19 July 2026
FCSB
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe10 August 2026
- D2-2Farul Constanta3 August 2026
- W2-0away to Csikszereda26 July 2026
- W2-0Arges Pitesti17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 |
| 1 | FCSB | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB
- 29 May 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 1–2 FCSBLiga I
- 6 December 2025FCSB 0–0 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 2 August 2025Dinamo Bucuresti 4–3 FCSBLiga I
- 5 May 2025FCSB 3–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 30 March 2025Dinamo Bucuresti 1–2 FCSBLiga I
- 23 February 2025FCSB 2–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
Leading scorers
Dinamo Bucuresti
- Alberto Soro2 goals1 assists
FCSB
- D. Bîrligea3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Bucuresti carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.58 for FCSB. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Bucuresti L-W-D-W-W; FCSB W-W-D-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Dinamo Bucuresti and 1.81 for FCSB. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Bucuresti rate 0.95 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FCSB rate 0.82 and 1.42.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 77% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FCSB, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Dinamo Bucuresti against 1.81 for FCSB. Dinamo Bucuresti's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.42 for FCSB.