West Brom
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
The model makes it 64% West Brom, 23% draw, 13% Burnley — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: West Brom 1.83, Burnley 0.71.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Burnley
- 11 March 2025Burnley 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 7 November 2024West Brom 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 20 January 2023Burnley 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 2 September 2022West Brom 1–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 20 February 2021Burnley 0–0 West BromPremier League
- 19 October 2020West Brom 0–0 BurnleyPremier League
The two sides
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.66 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for West Brom and 0.71 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 0.94 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.68 and 1.03.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for West Brom against 0.71 for Burnley. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.03 for Burnley.