Spartak Moscow
vs
Zenit
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 23% Spartak Moscow, 27% draw, 50% Zenit — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 0.95, Zenit 1.52.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Spartak Moscow
- W2-1away to Akhmat2 August 2026
- W3-0Rodina Moskva25 July 2026
Zenit
- L1-2Rodina Moskva9 August 2026
- W3-0away to FC Orenburg2 August 2026
- W5-0away to Akron25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 1 | Zenit | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Spartak Moscow
- Marquinhos1 goals1 assists
Zenit
- M. Glushenkov3 goals1 assists
- A. Sobolev2 goals1 assists
- Jhon Jhon1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Spartak Moscow carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.68 for Zenit. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Spartak Moscow W-W; Zenit W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.52 for Zenit. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Moscow rate 0.50 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zenit rate 0.69 and 1.01.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 1.52 for Zenit. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.01 for Zenit.