VfL Wolfsburg
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98
The model makes it 55% VfL Wolfsburg, 26% draw, 19% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 2.16, SV Darmstadt 98 0.84.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are VfL Wolfsburg wins, grey are draws, red are SV Darmstadt 98 wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Wolfsburg
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
- D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern8 August 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Dresden16 August 2026
- D2-2Holstein Kiel8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98
- 4 May 2024VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 SV Darmstadt 98Bundesliga
- 16 December 2023SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 18 March 2017VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98Bundesliga
- 22 October 2016SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 19 March 2016VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98Bundesliga
- 24 October 2015SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Wolfsburg
- F. Reese3 goals1 assists
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VfL Wolfsburg carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.47 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.84 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.91 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.68 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 0.84 for SV Darmstadt 98. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.46 for SV Darmstadt 98.